Dougie's FAT Friday mailbag

BOXING DAY COMES EARLY

Yo Dougie,
I know that Boxing day is celebrated in parts of Europe and Asia on the 26th, but that's what I choose to call this coming Saturday night. Man, its a busy schedule...Tim Bradley vs Lamont Peterson, Juan Diaz vs Paul Malignaggi, Jean Pascal vs Adrian Diaconu on Friday and not to mention another Vic Darchiniyan resurrection...as well as I'll be checking out Oleg Maskaev live at the Auditorium here in Sactown...My DVR is ready!

What I didn't mention was Vitali Klitschko vs Kevin Johnson as that is the fight that I think will be talked about most in Monday's mailbag. KJ does not like to get hit (who the hell does?) and has underrated footwork. I think he's going to give Mr. K difficult angles and he is not adverse to stinkin out the joint to win...I do not think he will, but he has the jab and tools to frustrate Vitali, much more than "Crisco" Arreola...I know I'm in the small minority but I think the 5-1 odds are out of line...but what do I know?

I think Paulie loses to Diaz and this time won't have any "cards stacked against him" to fall back on. I always like the first winner in a rematch and I just don't think his style can/will hold up to the pressure from Diaz. He gets hit a lot, moves backwards instead of side to side when attacked and his recent comments about hurting his ribs do not help with a body puncher waiting in the wings.

Bradley vs Peterson is a good match up and I'm interested to see if Peterson can seize the opportunity. I know they're friends but I'm expecting Bradley's speed, stamina and hometown crowd to bring him the W.

What do you think?

Oh yeah, Dave at RAW can tell you I called Ward over Kessler, weeks ago...(insert horn for me to toot here) never trust a guy who's biggest "win" is a "loss" to Calzaghe. Take care. -- Carlos in Sac

Good call on Kessler-Ward. Dre certainly proved something to me that night.

I also like Bradley and Diaz by decision. I think Bradley will alternate pressure and stick-and-move tactics to frustrate and out-hustle Peterson to a close but unanimous decision. I think it will be a very competitive and intense 12 rounds. If Peterson had a little more power and if Bradley hadn’t been in with the high caliber opponents he’s recently fought, I might go with Peterson in a slight upset. It’s a damn close fight as it is. Whoever wins, I hope they get the credit they deserve.

I think Diaz-Malignaggi will be another squeaker. Paulie’s style will probably always botehr the Baby Bull but I think Diaz is better prepared this time and will mix a little boxing in with his pressure and let his hands go in combination more often than he did in the first fight. I like Diaz by close, maybe majority or split decision.

I also agree that Johnson’s style may be more difficult (or frustrating) for Klitschko than Arreola’s non-stop stalking. However, I think Big V knows how to box both pressure fighters AND fellow boxers. He’s got a wicked awkward style, lots of patience, and the kind of punching power that KJ can only dream about. I favor Klitschko by late stoppage or UD.

I think Darch Vader stops Rojas by the late rounds.

I favor Pascal to repeat his UD over Diaconu in another damn good fight. (I’ve become a Pascal fan and would like to see the Haitian-Canadian in with the likes of Dawson and Tavoris Cloud.)

Be sure to wish Maskeav a Merry Boxing Day for me.

THE JUNIOR WELTERWEIGHTS

Doug,
I've been reading your articles and mailbags for some time now and really enjoy your insights. Keep up the good work. Hopefully, I can make your Friday mailbag.

We got a big weekend of fights coming up and I'm really excited for the Bradley-Peterson fight. Tim Bradley has been on my radar for a while now and it seems he's right on the cusp of being a breakout star. I was wondering if you see Pacquiao coming down to 140 and giving some of the guys like Tim Bradley, Devon Alexander, Juan Urango, Marcos Maidana, Amir Khan (would have to switch trainers and seems to be bidding for Hatton or Marquez at the moment), or even (god forbid) Paulie Malignaggi a shot? The 140-pound division seems pretty loaded at the moment and while none of them are huge money makers, there are some quality fighters. Mayweather will obviously be the biggest payday of his career, but going into late 2010 and early 2011, do you think Pacquiao will be willing to give any of these young hungry fighters a chance? There's a pretty deep talent pool at 140 right now and while I think Pacquiao would beat all of them, they would still make for some decent fights.

Or do you think he'll stay at 147 and go for the Berto-Mosley winner? Neither of whom are huge draws themselves. Regards. -- Jeff Cruz, Chino Hills, CA

I think Pacquiao will stay at 147 pounds because that’s where the mega-money is. I wouldn’t be surprised if both PacMan and Mayweather retire after they fight (IF it happens; keep your fingers crossed cuz it ain’t done till it’s done). If they do fight again, it will probably be a rematch and then they’ll call it quits, which means the young guns of the 140-pound division will have to make their names by fighting each other.

I think this will happen. HBO is interested in showcasing Ortiz, Khan, Maidana and Alexander, as well as whoever wins the Diaz-Malignaggi rematch. Showtime has done well with Bradley and Holt. Urango is out there and obviously still a force to be reckoned with.

Richard Schaefer tells me that Hatton-Marquez, Ortiz-Maidana II, Khan-Maidana, Ortiz-Khan, Diaz-Campbell II or Diaz-Marquez II (at 140 pounds) are all fights that can happen next year. Freddie Roach tells me that he’s willing to put Khan in with any of the 140-pound standouts next year, including the Bradley-Peterson winner. I know Gary Shaw, the good folks and Thompson Boxing, and manager Cameron Dunkin believe that Bradley is the goods and are willing to put Desert Storm in with any 140 pounder in the world. Top Rank believes in Peterson just the same. Apart from Hatton and Marquez, the 140 pounders we’re talking about are all young with something to prove, so I think these many of these matchups will happen. The junior welterweight division is going to be one of the hottest weight classes in 2010.

BRADLEY-PETERSON

Hey Dougie,
I was just wondering if you were attending the Bradley vs Peterson fight
this weekend. Of course, I will be there to support my baby bro. I know
that you picked Bradley to win but I know in my heart that Lamont will not
only win, he will dominate Timothy Bradley. I hope to see you there! -- Jerry E. Peterson

I will be there, Jerry. Don’t be a stranger if you see me. If you turn out to be correct about your brother tomorrow night just know that I will be happy for him. Whether he wins the title Saturday night or on another night in the not-too distant future, I know he’s earned it. Anthony will be grabbing some hardware pretty soon, too.

IT'S SHOWTIME (AND HBO)!

Dear Mr. Fischer,
I just caught your Look Ahead and 3 Minute Drill videos. Very awesome to watch, but you and Mr. Rosenthal left me wanting more. Where was the assessment of the Armeniageddon fight? I can't wait to see if Vic Darchynian can come back after his recent beat down at the hands of King Kong.

Of all this weekend's bouts, the Peterson-Bradley fight's got me most excited. Lamont Peterson's one of the best prospects to come out of DC in a while. Locally, the DC Council honored him with a public resolution when Peterson won his "interim" belt. Since the Council's got oversight over the DC Boxing Commission, a win by Peterson could easily bring real matches back to DC. On top of all things, I like the back story of the Peterson brothers and am impressed that they grew up to be such sincere guys.

Looking ahead, I'm psyched that my man Eric Morel's chance for redemption will be against Gerry Penalosa. Penalosa looked way past his prime against Juanma and after watching Cotto get beaten I'd like to see a Puerto Rican boxer beat a Filipino. A win for Morel could mean a title fight, which he should have gotten against Fernando "Pollito" Montiel ("Pollito" means "little chicken", a play on his "little rooster/cochulito" nickname).

Finally, while I hate to see a good man get kicked while he's down, I'm glad you and Mr. Rosenthal laid into Kelly Pavlik a bit. Ever since that beatdown he took at the hands of Bernard Hopkins, it seems like he's avoided everyone in his weight class (Arthur Abraham) and even those below his weight class (The Latin Snake, Paul Williams) who are of any note. And he keeps fighting all these scrubs on PPV! If this continues, I'll forever call him "the White Mayweather" (I know I've mentioned this before, but I really want it to stick). Thanks. -- Enrique Fernandez Roberts, Washington, DC

Let’s see what Pavlik does next year before we try to stick a nickname like that on him. He’s had a very bad year in terms of his health and his focus and being a young champion, I’m sure he wants to make up for it in 2010. If he doesn’t take on a top contender next year (Williams, Martinez, Sturm, Green) -- and this is assuming he takes care of biz against Miguel Espino next Saturday -- then he will have “earned” that nickname of yours.

Penalosa’s one of my favorite fighters but I like your boy Morel in that fight. I think he might have beat Montiel had that fight happened. Morel is stronger and sharper than ever at 118 pounds.

If Peterson wins tomorrow night it couldn’t happen to a more deserving fighter. He and Bradley are class acts.

Thanks for the kind words on the video features. They’ll get better the more Michael and I do them. Regarding Vic, we just didn’t have the time to preview everything this Saturday. I think he’ll do alright tomorrow. Junior bantamweight is his division.

VITALI, KHAN & RICKY

Dougie,
I'll start on Amir Khan. I was wondering how highly you rated him? Reading Michael Rosenthal's weekend review, he says that he'd beat any of Bradley, Ortiz, Maidana, Valero, Hatton etc. I too am on the bandwagon that says Khan could be a superstar under the guidance of Roach (even if most of the UK still seems to really dislike him and think he's overrated) although I'm not certain he could beat some of the top guys at 135 or 140 lbs quite yet. Personally I think Malignaggi could be a good fight for Amir (regardless of the result of this weekend's fight) in order to give him some decent exposure on your side of the pond. Your thoughts?

Also I was wondering where you rated Vitali Klitschko in P4P terms. This is a guy who has only lost twice and was possibly unlucky in both cases. In Lewis he gave the last great heavyweight champion a real run for his money and could maybe have won had it not been for the cut. He stands head and shoulders above anyone else in his division and I think he deserves far more credit than he gets. Maybe he'll get it when he smashes Haye but even then I'm not certain he will. I'm not saying he's a top 10 P4P but certainly top 20. Most don't even seem to give him credit for that. Again your thoughts on him please.

Finally I hope Ricky Hatton hangs up his gloves. The man is a God in the eyes of all Mancunians and I would hate to see the man who got me into boxing knocked out cold again. He has nothing to prove.

Keep up the good work Dougie. -- Loz, Manchester, UK

I agree about Hatton, however, he still has some fire in his belly. I think he’ll fight at least one more time, probably against JM Marquez next year.

I think I rated Vitali No. 9 or No. 10 the last time I submitted my P4P top 10 list to the Yahoo! Sports boxing poll.

Like Rosenthal, I’m very high on Khan. I think he’s one of the brightest talents I’ve ever seen. However, I don’t think he can beat all the fighters that the co-editor of this fine website listed in his Weekend Review this week. I think Khan vs. Bradley and vs. Ortiz are even fights. I think he can outbox Maidana but the Argentine would be a threat throughout the fight. Call me biased, but I think Valero stretches Khan by the middle rounds. I think my “son” is the worst possible matchup for Khan. Believe it or not, I think JM Marquez is one of the best style matchups for Khan. With his height, reach, speed and mobile boxing style, I think he’s hell for any counter-puncher, but especially an aging one who probably shouldn’t be fighting above 135 pounds. Hatton, at this stage of his career, is also a good matchup for Khan. I wouldn’t have said that a few years ago.

Khan vs. Malignaggi is an interesting fight because I’m not sure how (or what) the young Brit would do against a mover with fast hands, but I don’t care to see that “fight” because I think it would be mind-numbingly boring.

VICTOR ORTIZ

Dougie,
Good cards on HBO and Showtime this weekend, and I'm really looking forward to my first experience seeing world-class fighters live. Probably the best card to hit Chicago in a few years.

I'm most interested in how Victor Ortiz looks coming back from a loss. I think he's an enormous talent who can do big things in the sport. But I think he needs a better trainer to get him to that level.

I felt his trainer/corner really let him down in the Maidana fight on multiple levels. First, he obviously didn't have the right gameplan from the start to maximize his advantages over Maidana in the fight. Second, as the fight got more and more intense and competitive, the corner didn't have good guidance for him for getting back on track. Finally, when it was clear that Victor had had enough, and had been broken down mentally, the corner could have stopped the fight. If you really know your fighter and you can see he's losing it mentally because of the beating he's receiving, then get your guy out of there. This could also have spared Victor some of the subsequent criticism of being a quitter.

I agree with your general views that we shouldn't tear down talented young fighters just because they get a loss early in their careers. However, a fighter is not going to grow from this kind of loss if he doesn't have knowledgeable training to help him improve on his flaws.

I liked Mike Rosenthal's piece on Ortiz's mental state going into this fight, but I didn't see anything regarding his training team. What are you thoughts on the subject? Best. -- Sugar Sam, Chicago, IL

I think there’s a learning curve for young trainers just like there is for young fighters and I believe that trainers learn from losses just like fighters do.

Ortiz’s corner wanted him to box Maidana. That was the plan and that’s what they worked on in the gym. Ortiz is a young buck and he had a card carrying badass in front of him. He was hurt bad after that first knockdown and his gameplan went out of the window after he dropped Maidana twice in the second round. From that point on, he was fighting on instinct. And yes, his corner froze. They weren’t able to calm him down or tell him what to do between, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be able to the next time he’s in a tough fight. They can grow and learn from their experiences just like Ortiz can (and probably has). We’ll see if Ortiz gets a tough fight form Diaz tomorrow night (which he probably will).

154-POUND TITLE

Hey Dougie,
If Martinez and Williams have an immediate rematch, this time at 154, would it be for THE RING Light Middleweight title, considering Williams is now exclusively ranked at Middleweight? It wouldn't seem right if it is not. I don't see a more desirable bout for the networks or fans, at 154 or 160, or any other reason why that shouldn't come off. What do you think? -- Justin, Knoxville

If Williams and Martinez fight again, and do it at 154 pounds, it would not be for THE RING belt because the magazine does not currently rank P-Will at junior middleweight.

Martinez would have to fight No. 2 contender Cory Spinks to earn the magazine’s 154-pound title.