Dougie's Friday mailbag

FINALLY EXCITED ABOUT PACQUIAO-MOSLEY

Hey Doug hope all is good...
Well, it happened. I'm finally excited about the Manny Pacquiao-Shane Mosley fight. I'm pretty sure the outcome will be as most predict, Pacman by decision but I'm quite sure it will be entertaining and Mosley will have some moments early. Honestly, I would like to see him spring the upset or at least score a knock down. I like Pacquiao but I think I like Mosley more.

I wish Manny would stop with the singing career. He can’t sing and it’s embarrassing to even watch. Do you know anything about Mosley's training camp so far? Who has he been sparring with?

I don’t know if you watch or heard about last weekend’s UFC show featuring Georges St. Pierre vs Jake Shields but it was a stinker in front of 55 thousand fans who even booed. I loved it because I think MMA is way overrated. I mean they put down boxing all the time but St. Pierre who is one of their biggest stars uses boxing like 80 percent of the time to win his fights and he's not even a good boxer. I'm starting to think its more of a fad than anything else. -- Steve the Greek, Montreal

MMA is not a fad, Steve. Fads don’t draw 55,000 paying fans to a stadium. The occasional stinker in a big combat sports event is going to happen from time to time. We can’t let one disappointing fight color an entire sport. That would be like MMA fans pointing to every big Floyd Mayweather-headlined PPV show and saying, “See, this is why boxing is dead.” I’m sure many have done just that but we don’t have to stoop to that level. We got a good thing with boxing, and when it’s good -- like we’ve had recently with the Morales-Maidana and Berto-Ortiz fights -- nothing compares, in my humble opinion.

I hope Pacquiao-Mosley exceeds expectations tomorrow night. I wish I was as excited as you are, but I’m just not feeling it like that.

Having said that, Mosley’s seemingly good mood combined with Bob Arum and Showtime’s top-notch promotion/hyping of tomorrow’s match up have me thinking the old man might have a chance. My brain tells my heart to calm the f__k down every time those thoughts go through my head but as it stands, I’m giving Mosley more of a shot than I did when this bout was first made.

Still, my official pick is Pacquiao by decision. I think it could go like the Cotto fight, competitive and exciting during the first four rounds -- however, Pacquiao could be the one who gets rocked this time around -- but then the Filipino hero will settle down and box a more disciplined fight over the second half as he did for most of the Margarito fight. If Pacquiao doesn’t want to get hit by Mosley, he won’t.

I’ll be satisfied if at least some of the rounds are entertaining. I don’t think it will happen but if Mosley pulls the upset, I’ll be very happy for him. Of all of today’s active fighters, I’ve followed Mosley’s career the longest (since 1994, before I began covering the sport), so obviously there‘s some emotional attachment the veteran underdog.

I’m glad somebody finally spoke the truth about Manny’s awful singing. I can’t listen to it. I get embarrassed for the champ. But hey, when you can fight like he does, and generate the money and excitement his events usually pull in, you can do what you want.

All I’ve heard about Mosley’s camp is that it was a good one, better than his camps for Mora and Mayweather. I’ll take his word for it. He seems to have that confident glow fighters get when they’ve had a good camp.

WHY THE UPSET WON’T HAPPEN

Hey Dougie,
I think Mosley has all the tools to pull off the upset. There's only one reason I'm not picking him to do it. In his loss to Floyd Mayweather, I saw him pull his foot way off the gas. I don't think Mayweather scared him with power (obviously) but I think he scared him with timing. He made Mosley think twice about pulling the trigger.

I think Pac is one of the worst guys in the world to be in with if you're at the point in your career where you're thinking twice about pulling the trigger. I'd love to see him do it. I think if Pac's defense hasn't improved since the Margarito fight a hungry Mosley would stop him, but I'm afraid he'll be more cautious than he can afford to be with a guy who throws as fast and frequent as Pacquiao. At any rate, it should be exciting at least for a while. Take care. -- Todd

You know I’m the last boxing writer in the world to give Mayweather more credit than he deserves but I gotta call things the way I see (or saw) them. I think Floyd did freak Shane out a little bit with his power. I don’t think Mayweather seriously hurt Mosley, but I believe he surprised the supposedly stronger, tougher man with the amount of power and snap on the end of his punches and with his own underrated physical strength (which he applied with authority whenever they clinched). The Mosley fight let me know that Mayweather had grown into a full a welterweight with world-class 147-pound power and strength to go with his smarts, speed and reflexes.

Of course, Mayweather’s speed and timing also had Mosley thinking and second guessing more than acting and reacting. The fact that he couldn’t capitalize on actually hurting Mayweather despite having plenty of time in the round should let everyone know that Mosley’s reflexes have fallen off considerably. It’s the reason he was perceived as a relatively safe opponent by Arum & Co.

It would be funny if Mosley derailed the Top Rank train one more time, though. He’s been living kryptonite to Arum’s supermen since he fist upset Oscar De La Hoya. He did it in 2000 and 2003. He almost did it to Cotto, Arum’s East Coast attraction, in 2007. I’m sure the good folks at Top Rank were sweating out those final rounds in Madison Square Garden on that cold, rainy November weekend. And, of course, he did it to Margarito just when the Tijuana Tornado had emerged as the next Mexican ticket seller (21,000 at Staples Center!).

Can he do it one more time? Like you, I just don’t see it.

RING TITLE UP FOR GRABS?

Doug,

I know we're probably not on good speaking terms right now and wouldn't be surprised if this ended up in your automatic spam blocker. However, due to Mayweather's removal from The Ring rankings, Mosley is now considered #3 in Welterweight with Pacquiao as #1. Will The Ring recognize this Saturday's fight as the Ring Championship? You don't have to respond to me, I feel it is a simple question and could get a little footnote somewhere in your future articles this week. Thanks. -- Kyle in Federal Way, WA

I wasn’t aware that we weren’t on good speaking terms, Kyle.

Anyway, that’s a good question. The answer is no, the vacant RING welterweight title will not be up for grabs tomorrow night. If it were there would have been an announcement to that fact on RingTV.com at least a week ago.

In general, the only time the Nos. 1 and 3 contenders fight for the vacant RING title is if the No. 2 contender (which is Victor Ortiz at welterweight) is either unavailable or had been defeated by the No. 3 contender in recent years.

HOW SHANE CAN WIN

Hi Doug,

How are you doing? I assume you are getting a lot of mails about Manny-Shane fight. I know you don't want anymore Manny-Shane fight mail but here is my contribution. I think Team Shane, especially him and Naazim, should watch the Erik Morales fight instead of the Marquez fights if they wanna find out something about Manny.

I think in order to win the fight, Shane should fight inside for whole 12 rounds. Here is why:

1. Shane can't catch Manny if he tries to box him. If Shane could not catch Mora, there is no way Shane can catch Manny.
2. Shane is not so good against southpaws. He's got beat by Winky twice and struggled against a guy like Raul Marquez. He won against Collazo but he ate left cross more than often.
3. Shane just can't sit and wait to be a counter puncher because Manny will pile up the points while he's doing that. Also he's not a natural counter puncher like Marquez.
4. Shane is not good at adjusting/adopting to the situation/opponent. If he could not establish his own rhythm, he tends to fade away like he did against Winky and Floyd.
5. Shane tends to have problems with fighters who gives him weird angles. He struggled against Mayorga and Raul Marquez.
6. Manny doesn't fight inside much and he doesn't seem to know what to do when he gets tied up.
7. Manny has not been pushed around much. He laid on the ropes occasionally against Morales (first fight) and Margarito but he doesn't get pushed around much.

So, if Shane chooses to stay on Manny's chest and can commit to fight inside, he doesn't have to worry about Manny's footwork, rapid combinations and southpaw stance much. Also, Manny doesn't seem to be used to fighting inside so he might be able to wear him down a bit and mess up Manny's usual rhythm. Manny is a rhythmic fighter and once he gets in the zone, it's very hard to beat him.

However, like in his first fight with Morales, once he could not get into his rhythm (it was done by Morales's counter punching and a cut caused by an accidental head butt), it'll take a while for him to get back in the fight.

Like he did against Margarito, he should tie Manny up whenever he gets a chance and push him to the ropes or the corners. Then he should stay on his chest and never give him any room to throw combinations. I feel that once Manny realizes that he can't use his usual in/out movement and rapid combination so often, he'll get frustrated. If that's the case, I think Shane has an experience to take advantage of that situation.

What do you think, Doug? -- Naoki, Reno, NV

I agree with most of your points and your basic premise. I think Mosley needs to lock up Pacquiao anytime the younger, faster man gets close enough for him to grab. Why?

Because, as you pointed out, Mosley will have difficulty trying to time Pacquiao from the outside as JMM did. He just doesn’t pull the trigger the way the 126- and 130-pound Marquez was able to in 2004 and 2008. It’s gradual suicide to follow Pacquiao around the ring (just ask De La Hoya and Margarito), and it doesn’t make sense for Mosley to allow Manny to come forward. I think Mosley needs to tie Pacquiao up, try to get to the body as much as possible, and walk the smaller man back into the ropes.

I don’t agree that Pacquiao doesn’t fight inside much. He does fight inside, and he does it well. He just doesn’t stay inside, which is a good idea against these naturally bigger guys. I do agree that he doesn’t like to be tied up in close. Anything Mosley can do to frustrate Pacquiao and get the heavy favorite off his rhythm (as you stated) is a plus.

I don’t know if holding/clinching is Mosley’s key to victory, but I think it can make him more competitive. The downside, of course, is that it can also make for an ugly fight.