Doug Fischer

Dougie’s Friday Mailbag

CHAVEZ WILL STOP MARTINEZ

Hi Doug,

Always enjoy reading your Monday and Friday mailbags. I enjoyed you putting that Bryan idiot in his place not once but twice! Good work.

I’ve written in a couple of times but not managed to get published yet. Probably because I blab on about UK fighters!

I just wanted to give you my thoughts on the Julio Chavez Jr.-Sergio Martinez fight this Saturday. I know I am going to be in minority here but I genuinely believe that Chavez will end up walking Martinez down and stopping him. Having watched Martinez’s last 5 or 6 fights and particularly the Darren Barker fight I see him as beatable. If Barker had a bit more experience, fitness and probably talent he could have been the one to do it. In the early rounds Martinez was struggling and didn’t look P4P number 3 (4 now) by any stretch. The problem for Barker was he didn’t throw enough as the fight went on. But Chavez is a lot better than people give him credit for and certainly better than Barker. He has a solid chin, decent power and his pressure on Martinez will eventually tell. Had this fight happened a couple of years ago then Martinez would have won, I have no doubt.

Everyone says Chavez was running from the fight. Maybe he was. But maybe he was also waiting for the right time to take the fight. I think he’s seen Martinez is now beatable and he will be the one to do it. I fancy him to stop Martinez inside 10 rounds perhaps even earlier. Anyway I am really looking forward to the fight. I don’t prefer either man so I shall sit back and enjoy it. Whoever wins I am just glad two of the best in the division are squaring off.

How do you see the fight?

If Chavez does win then I would love to see him fight Gennady Golovkin next. That would be a war and a brilliant spectacle for us fans.

If Martinez wins then maybe a fight against Andre Ward at a catchweight? Or Floyd Mayweather but I think we both know the chances of that fight happening. Actually, if Martinez loses then Mayweather may take the fight!

Hope to hear back from you. Cheers. – Dave, London

Martinez coming off a loss to Chavez is still a better opponent than anyone else out there for Mayweather (including Pacquiao).

But I don’t think THE RING middleweight champ is going to lose to the unbeaten WBC beltholder tomorrow night.

Why? The same reasons you gave for your boy Barker not getting it done: a lack of experience, fitness and talent.

Chavez has a lot of fights but when Andy Lee, Marco Antonio Rubio, Peter Manfredo Jr. and John Duddy are the best guys you’ve faced – you haven’t been in with anyone near the class of “Maravilla,” nor will you be ready for the tools and smarts the Argentine lefty brings to the ring.

I don’t buy the 24/7 hype that Junior is slacking off in training, but even if he’s given 110 percent every day in camp I know from having watched him workout and spar in the past that he hasn’t come close to putting the effort that Martinez does on a regular basis.

As far as talent is concerned, forget about it. It’s no contest. Chavez is not on Martinez’s level. However, I do think this fight will be a contest. Chavez is very big, very strong and extremely durable. And he’s got a style that will push Martinez early in the bout.

I won’t be surprised if Chavez is ahead on the scorecards after five or six rounds, but from that point on I expect Martinez to dish out a lot of punishment. I don’t think he’ll stop Junior. He’ll give it the ole college try, but Chavez’s chin and intense pride – along with the thunderous cheering from the majority of the 19,000-plus fans who will be crammed into the Thomas & Mack Center – will hold him up until the final bell.

Win, lose or draw I’d love to see Chavez tangle with Golovkin, who has mastered Chavez Sr.’s style better than the son. I wouldn’t mind seeing Junior take on Daniel Geale, Matthew Macklin or the N’Jikam-Quillin winner, either. There are a lot of good matchups to be made in the 160-pound division.

If Martinez wins I know his promoter, Lou DiBella, is going to push very hard for the middleweight champ to drop down to 154 pounds where PPV showdowns can be made against Mayweather or Miguel Cotto (provided the Puerto Rican star gets past Austin Trout in December – which is not a given).

The only way Martinez’s people (DiBella and Sampson Lewkowicz) would sign-off on a showdown with Ward is if their fighter was offered at least $5 million and I don’t think that kind of money exists – yet – for this matchup.

GOING TO VEGAS

Yo Dougie,

What up. Long time reader. First time writer. I hope this makes the mailbag. After watching both episodes of 24/7 and the Faceoff with Chavez/Martinez, I’ve never been so sure about a supposedly close fight as I am about this one. Martinez has the look of a man who wants to eat Chavez’s children. I’m so sure that I’m headed to Vegas to bet the farm on Martinez. See ya there. – Dave from L.A.

I’ll see ya Saturday, Dave. I’ll be chillin’ at the MGM Grand (probably at the Rogue Lounge just after midnight). Holla at me and tell me how it all went down since I won’t see Martinez-Chavez live or watch a recording of the fight until I get home on Sunday.

BOXING ODDS

I’m a sucker for what I see as a good underdog bet. I placed a wager on Chad Dawson last week then was happily surprised to see later that the bet wasn’t processed by my online sportsbook. This week I am also taking an under, in 2 senses. I’m taking the under 11.5 rounds on Martinez-Chavez, which is an underdog bet. I have a difficult time seeing that fight going 12. I figure either Chavez asserts his full potential and KO’s Sergio with some of his vaunted power, or Sergio does what he’s does to every middleweight not named Kelly Pavlik, and beats them into submission inside of 12. Both seem highly confident. Only Martinez has been tested by truly elite fighters, and he’s passed his tests, Margs in 2000 notwithstanding. Then again, I lose more underdog bets that I win, so perhaps another controversial and sport-damaging decision will be in order.

Speaking of Pavlik, have you heard anything on him recently? I’ve seen or read nothing on him since his distance victory over Will Rosinsky, which may not have been the confidence builder he and his team were hoping for.

Do you give either of the Dirrells a legitimate chance to challenge Ward? And does Anthony have the inside track on fighting him before his brother after having won a WBC eliminator?

Speaking of underdogs – you know much more about Josesito than I. Would it very likely be lost money to bet on him, even with the considerable, licking my lips, underdog odds?

Other thoughts: I liked hearing Max and Larry on the same telecast. If circumstances were to bring them together again, I could see some heated and opinionated word wars between them.

Interesting that Daniel Ponce DeLeon is making more money than Jhonny Gonzalez with Gonzalez being the beltholder.

About rd. 4 of Ward/Dawson, Ward joined the Pretty Money Boy as boxers to never bet against until they lose. Ward may never lose because he’s just that good, Floyd because he’s a disappointing, challenge averse, insecure guy that rarely fights.

GGG makes me smile.

With Ward’s recent dominance fresh in our potentially biased minds, here are a couple mythical match-ups for you:

SOG vs prime Tarver @ 175

SOG vs Michalczewski @ 175

SOG vs Toney @ 168

SOG vs RJ JR @ 168

RJ JR. vs Dawson 175

The mailbag is a great column. If I ever find myself in Vegas on a fight week, I’d happily buy you drinks in return for some heady boxing talk. – Rich

You got it, Rich. I’m a Guinness man, if you didn’t already know.

Mythical matchups:

I’ll go with prime Tarver over Ward via close but unanimous decision at light heavyweight. Ward is unproven at 175 pounds, and when Tarver was at his best (2001-’05), the southpaw was a formidable boxer-puncher with an extremely difficult style. And the “Milk Dud of Malice” also had/has a world-class chin.

I’ll also go with D-Mich over Ward at 175 by late TKO. The prime version of the Polish Tiger (1994-’99) was too big, too strong, too tough and just too damn relentless for any boxer – especially a super middleweight coming up in weight – to deal with.

I’ll also take the 168-pound versions of Toney and RJJ over Ward. “Lights Out” would have won a close, perhaps majority or split, decision. I think Jones – who I consider the best super middleweight ever – would have taken Ward out by the middle rounds of what would have been a fascinating high-intensity chess match until RJ landed the bomb.

Ward beats Dawson by one-sided UD at 175 pounds.

GGG makes a lot of fans smile. Hopefully we’ll get to see him again before the year is out.

I’m not a betting man, but if I was I certainly wouldn’t bet against Ward. I wouldn’t bet against Mayweather, either, unless he fought Martinez.

DeLeon is making more dough than Gonzalez? Credit Daniel’s manager, Frank Espinoza.

I also enjoyed the Max-Larry combo.

I wouldn’t bet Lopez to beat Canelo – the house fighter, defending champ, naturally bigger man and a bona-fide Mexican star – on Mexican Independence Day weekend, but I would put money on the fight going the distance. Josesito is as tough and game as fighters come, plus he’s got underrated boxing skills and he won’t be as undersized as too many phony boxing writers and Twitter bloggers have suggested.

Andre Dirrell has a better chance of getting Ward than Anthony, who did win a WBC title elimination bout but then injured his leg in a motorcycle accident and has since lost his WBC ranking while he’s been out of action.

I haven’t heard anything from Team Pavlik. Hopefully, manager Cameron Dunkin and Top Rank get him one more fight before the end of the year. If they do, I think he’ll be ready to a title shot at 168 or 160 in 2013.

I think Martinez-Chavez will go the full 12 but I admit that wagering that the fight won’t go the distance is a good bet. Both Martinez and Chavez usually break their opponents down to late stoppages. And both guys want to do some serious damage in tomorrow’s middleweight showdown.

PACQUIAO-MARQUEZ IV

Doug,

Pacquiao is going to fight Juan Manuel Marquez for a FOURTH F—ING TIME! I would literally rather watch another Klitschko fight on PPV before I would buy this. Okay, not really.

Thank you. – Byron, Columbia, MO

I hear ya. I think Pacquiao would better served taking the rest of the year off, but I hear his deal with Bob Arum is almost over and I’m sure the Big Bob Man wants to milk the Filipino superstar for every buck he can before letting him go, so we’re going to get another Pacquiao PPV this year whether we like it or not.

And let’s face it JMM makes for a more lucrative PPV fight than a rematch with Bradley or anyone else in the 147-pound division not named Mayweather.

I’m not excited about Pacquiao-Marquez IV but there are hundreds of thousands of Filipino and Mexican fans who are. Arum is well aware of this.

MONSTER MASH

Hey Dougie!!

Fired up for the big Latino Monster Mash!? I sure am!!

But first I have to say a couple things concerning last Monday’s Mailbag.

I’m not really a Dawson-hater. But damn, ripping him is just so easy. It’s like he needs to be reminded that punching is part of the game. And the frustrating part is that he is a big, highly talented guy. Why is he so friggin’ passive?

Second, Bryan just further proved that his brain cells are as useless as tits on a turtle! Same goes for my detractor and stupid-ass “top commentator” Jim Parkinson. Hey Jim, did a truck collide with your fat, freakish head or are you just a naturally born moron?!

OK Dougie let’s rap! And speaking of dimwits, Chavez Jr. has been mercilessly ripped lately for looking like a doofus. And yes, in some recent pictures Junior might as well be wearing a beanie-cap with the word “Duh” on it.

But the dude can fight. And this may be Maravilla’s toughest title defense yet. Not that I’m going to make any reckless predictions this time.

I could picture Maravilla chopping up Chavez just like I could picture Chavez grinding the champ up and down. Maybe we’ll get a bit of both which means we get one hell of a fight. Suits me fine.

I just hope we don’t get that s__ty scenerio concerning braindead judges f__king the whole thing up if the fight goes the full twelve. With the stench still lingering from the Pacquiao-Bradley farce, that’s the last thing we need right now.

You can count me as one of those fans not foolishly dismissing Josesito Lopez’s chances against Saul Alvarez. Look at what Lopez did to Victor Ortiz. Victor’s nearly Canello’s size and he’s stronger and punches harder than Alvarez. Plus, Ortiz faced much better competition. Not that I’m counting out Alvarez. The guy sparred with Golovkin for f__k’s sake! This could go either way.

Look for both of these fiery Latinos to hammer the el crapo out of one another! I’m just wandering how many flying punches will get crammed in a single round! Watch out for flying teeth everyone!

OK Dougie! Gotta fly! Enjoy the mayhem!! VIVA MEXICO!! – Todd The Terminator

Yes, viva Mexico! Without Mexican fans and Mexican beer companies – Viva Corona! Viva Tecate! – we wouldn’t have nearly as much of our beloved sport in the U.S. as we currently enjoy.

I agree with you, Alvarez-Lopez will be a FIGHT. I think Alvarez will be smart and not engage Lopez as much as Ortiz did (at least early on in the fight). He’ll box and pick his spots when to get off with combinations, but Lopez will press him and definitely appeal to the red head’s Mexican pride, so I think we’ll get plenty of heated exchanges but I believe Canelo will land the harder shots at the right times and win a competitive but unanimous decision in a crowd-pleasing scrap.

I know I sound like a Golden Boy shill when I pump up the Showtime card, but I honestly think that every fight on that broadcast – Santa Cruz-Morel, Maidana-Soto Karass, Gonzalez-DeLeon and Canelo-Lopez – is going to deliver.

The only fight that might not be a slugfest is Santa Cruz-Morel, but I think the young titleholder’s constant pressure and crazy volume punching will force the Puerto Rican veteran – who’s as skilled and crafty as they come – to stand his ground and fight at some point.

The other fights are going to be bombs away.

I agree that Martinez-Chavez will also evolve (or should I say devolve?) into a bombs-away fight by the middle rounds. I favor Martinez but I have no doubt that Chavez will have his moments during an entertaining fight. (I’d use the words “crowd-pleasing” to describe it, but since the majority of folks in the Thomas & Mack Center will be Chavez supporters I gotta assume that there will be a lot of bummed out fans at the end of the night.)

LOSERVILLE

Hey Doug,

Just going to take a look at past and upcoming losers.

Your partner in crime Michael Rosenthal got it wrong. The biggest loser of the weekend was e-mailer Bryan. What a retard!! Hopefully we won’t see anymore of him and his pathetic bulls__t!

Moving onto the fighters now. We’ll begin with Dawson. For a cautious guy Dawson took a huge risk by chopping off those badly needed pounds and taking on a beast like Ward. And it really paid off! For Ward! If they fought at 175 pounds Chad might have least won a round or two and last the full fight.

Having said that I think that people should lay off Dawson. True, Chad used to fight with real conviction. After barely winning that brutal fight with Glen Johson the Bad One has been gun shy ever since. But he’s still been taking on top-notch opposition since that crucial bout., including two defending champions Hopkins and Ward. Loser of the night? Yes. Overall loser? I don’t think so.

We also know that Chad will go back to 175 where he no doubt has some more good fights left in him. John Molina is not so fortunate. He got his ass kicked in his own weight class. Even if he did take a knee or fell down on his ass he wouldn’t have lasted much longer. Not the way DeMarco was all over him. His world-class days are probably over.

Of course the beatdown victim of the weekend was definitely that Olusegun guy. Not that he fought like a victim.

Sure he may have been overrated. And I too had to laugh at those chumps who picked the relatively unknown Nigerian to stomp over Matthysse who might indeed be the best fighter in the junior welter division! But “The Gun” certainly tried! Even when he got the living s__t pounded from within him. I don’t know if I should call this guy courageous or a damn fool, or both. But providing this defiant fighter isn’t damaged goods I’d like to see him at least take on the other guys in the lower top-ten. Olusegun-Marcos Maidana anyone?

Concerning this weekend I already know that the biggest loser (literally speaking!) will be Chavez Jr. because he’s going to get his fat, drunken ass kicked on HBO PPV and made to look more stupid than he already does. (If he can actually look anymore like a big dork!)

Other upcoming losers will be fans that don’t pick Showtime’s Alvarez-Lopez card. Not I could really blame you all for wanting to see Junior get beaten up. But while that’s the superfight of the night, Alvarez-Lopez will be the superb fight of the night. These two Latin warriors are really going to bring it and I don’t know who to pick.

Even the undercard is better than HBO’s. Speaking of which I sure hope Maidana doesn’t land in the loser column again. He could really use a “W” right now!

Which card are you attending by the way? Thanks. – Dave

I’m covering (and doing the international broadcast) for the Showtime card.

I’m a Maidana fan but I got a feeling that Soto Karass is going to bring more technique and heat than the Argentine slugger can handle tomorrow night. I’m picking the underdog in this welterweight showdown and going with Soto Karass by unanimous decision in (what else?) an entertaining brawl.

But hey, win or lose on Saturday, I’d pay money to see Maidana fight Ajose at 140 pounds.

I agree that Alvarez-Lopez will be a competitive and entertaining.

I agree that Dawson is not a “loser,” shouldn’t be raked across the proverbial coals for getting his kicked by Ward, and I agree that he has many good matchups in front of him at light heavyweight.

Molina needs to head right back to the gym in 30 days and work on fundamentals (mainly defense) before debuting at 140 pounds in 2013.

KLITSCHKO

Dear Doug:
September is off to a great start! Matthysse is the real deal. Although it was highly entertaining, I do think that either the referee or Ajose’s corner should have stopped the fight earlier. When I’m cringing at home watching a fighter absorb a punch I know it’s gone too far. He had no chance and he was taking a heck of a beating. I liked Ajose’s spirit and I hope he can rebound from this because I think that with some additional technical skills he could be a force. I also agree with Bad Chad’s no mas moment, for the same reason. It was apparent from the 2nd round on that he had nothing more than a puncher’s chance against Ward [who looked unstoppable in there] and he isn’t a one-shot kind of puncher. What is next for Dawson?

I also enjoyed the HBO documentary Klitschko, though not the fight big bro had with that tomato can in Moscow. That stoppage was pathetic; it was just a nasty cut. Even the tomato can was pissed off. At least give the guy a round or two and give his cut man a chance to work. If that is the last we see of big bro [if he is elected to parliament I hear he's done with boxing], where does he rate? HOFer? It is a shame that the Klitschkos are smart, polite, technically proficient fighters with no criminal records or crazy lifestyle issues. Perhaps if the documentarian showed them drinking beer and making stupid bets at sports books instead of playing chess Americans would warm up to them more. Hey, it works for hacky politicians and defense-oriented welterweights…The film did convert my wife and daughter to fans though, when they saw Wladimir getting out of the pool.

This weekend could be even better than the last one. I think Martinez-Chavez Jr. will be a brilliant fight. I love Martinez’s style against JCCJ and JCCJ’s chin and size in there with Martinez. What’s the over-under on how many pounds over the limit Chavez will rehydrate to at fight time?

I am picking Maravilla by decision that will be more lopsided on paper than it will be in the ring – I think he’s gonna do a dance on Junior’s face but not really be in danger of a stoppage, except perhaps on cuts. Their pre-fight publicity was unusually nasty [for them – though I thought Maravilla looked a little queasy trash-talking]; do you get the impression that they genuinely dislike one another or was it just the promoters trying to put cans in the seat and eyes on the PPV?

Also wanted to mention Golovkin. The haters are wrong; GGG is the real deal and he is what the sport needs more of – power. That’s what OCD boxing nuts and casual fans have in common. Where should he go next?

I am using the ol’ DVR to get Alvarez-Lopez. I like Lopez – great heart – and I don’t necessarily buy the view that Alvarez is too big and strong for the package Josesito brings to the table and will just blow him away. Josesito is tall and has a long reach. And he’s definitely got power. He just doesn’t look ‘meaty’ like Alvarez does, but those stringy guys can be hell on wheels. Ask Victor Ortiz, once they unwire his jaw.

Looking forward to your thoughts. Sincerely – Adam S. Warshaw

Lopez will not be dwarfed or outclassed by Alvarez. He’s not a natural junior middleweight but he’s a solid welterweight at this point in his career. And you’re absolutely right, he doesn’t look thick and muscular because he’s tall and he carries most of his weight in his legs (and not his upper body), but he’s solid and he’s strong enough and hits hard enough to get Canelo’s respect.

I think Lopez will weigh in around 152 or 153 pounds later today and he’ll look meatier than he did for the Ortiz fight. Canelo will tip the scales at 154 pounds and he might be a little dry from making weight. Come fight night, both fighter will rehydrate to 165 or 166 pounds.

Where should Golovkin go next? He should fight any middleweight contender with the balls to get in the ring with him before the end of 2012. He needs to fight on U.S. TV as much as he can in order to eventually get the big fights with Martinez and Junior. I think he should target WBA/IBF beltholder Daniel Geale, and if he can’t lure the Aussie badass into the ring he should fight Martinez’s leftovers – Dzinziruk, Barker and Macklin. I think Triple G would take them out a lot quicker than Maravilla did, which would build fan interest in a showdown with the RING champ.

I think Martinez and Chavez legitimately hate each other.

If Martinez lets that hate take over his intellect on fight night, he might play into Chavez’s heavy heads.

I think Junior will gain his customary 20 pounds between today’s weigh-in and the time he steps into the ring on Saturday night.

I haven’t seen the Klitschko documentary yet, but I did DVR it and I do intend to view it. I’ve heard good things about it. I consider Vitali to be a border-line hall of famer. He’s defeated a dozen top-10 contenders and he had the highest KO ratio in heavyweight history. His only losses are technical knockouts to two heavyweights I have a great deal of respect for – Chris Byrd and Lennox Lewis – and he was leading on all scorecards at the time of both stoppages. If Big Bro retires this year, I’ll put a check mark by his name when I see it on the International Boxing Hall of Fame ballot 5 years from now.

Don’t feel bad for the K-bros just because most American boxing fans reject them. Both brothers are healthy, wealthy and happy, and both are set for life financially.

I agree that Matthysse is the real deal.

I also hope that Ajose can rebound.

What’s next for Dawson? I hope a rematch with Jean Pascal or a title unification bouts with Nathan Cleverly, Tavoris Cloud or Beibut Shumenov.

 

 

Email Dougie at dfischer@rigntv.com. Follow him on Twitter @dougiefischer

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